Is Shell plc undervalued?

Oak Growth's intrinsic value for Shell plc is £38.00, against a current price of £25.16 — a margin of safety of 51%. Its BP Score is 82/100.

What is Shell plc's intrinsic value?

Oak Growth estimates Shell plc's intrinsic value at £38.00 per share using a discounted cash flow model.

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Shell plc (SHEL)

Analysis by Nathan Wickham-Hurd · Founder, Oak Growth · Energy · FTSE 100 · LSE · Last reviewed June 2026

Price

£25.16

Intrinsic value (DCF)

£38.00

Margin of safety

51%

82~~BP /100~~

BUY

Oak Growth values Shell plc at £38.00 per share against a market price of £25.16 — a margin of safety of 51%. Its composite BP Score is 82/100. How we calculate this →

The four pillars

Moat✓

Value✓

Financials✓

Management✓

Relative valuation

Against its sector, Shell plc scores 72/100 on Oak Growth's relative-valuation measure (P/E, P/FCF, P/Book and EV/EBITDA vs the sector median). That places it in the “cheap vs sector” band. See how the RV score works →

Momentum signal

The most recent moving-average crossover for SHEL:

Golden Dot — 50-day crossed above the 200-day (bullish)

Recent market-moving news

15 May 2026
Q1 2026 results — adjusted earnings up 12%, $3.5bn buyback announced
2 Apr 2026
Trading update: integrated gas volumes ahead of guidance

Analyst note

Shell screens well across all four pillars with a wide margin of safety, driven by strong free cash flow and disciplined capital returns. The main watch-item is energy-price sensitivity — the intrinsic value assumes a normalised commodity environment, so stress-test the DCF against a lower-price scenario before acting.

Screen Shell plc live on Oak Growth →