NatWest Group (NWG)
The most domestically focused of the large UK banks, and until recently the one the government owned. That makes it the cleanest way to take a view on the UK economy — for better or worse.
The business
NatWest runs retail banking, commercial and institutional banking, and private banking and wealth. Unlike Barclays or HSBC it has no large investment bank and little international exposure, so its earnings track UK interest rates, UK lending volumes and UK credit quality.
H1 2026 attributable profit was £3.0bn with return on tangible equity of 19.7%. The acquisition of Evelyn Partners completed on 30 June 2026, taking assets under management and administration to £130.6bn.
The numbers that matter
All figures as reported on the dates shown. Nothing on this page updates with the share price — the live valuation sits in the app.
| Measure | Latest reported | |
|---|---|---|
| H1 2026 attributable profit | £3.0bn | total profit £4.3bn, +20% |
| Return on tangible equity | 19.7% | among the highest in UK banking |
| Earnings per share | 38.1p | +23.3% |
| Interim dividend | 12.0p | +26% |
| Impairment charge, H1 | £423m | 19bps, guidance under 25bps |
| CET1 ratio | 13.2% | after Evelyn Partners |
| Basel 3.1 impact | +£10bn RWAs | expected 1 Jan 2027 |
The moat
The same moat every large retail bank has, and it is a real one: current accounts are sticky, most people never switch, and the resulting deposit base is a cheap and stable source of funding. A 19.7% return on tangible equity is what that looks like when rates are favourable.
The limit is that the moat does not protect against the interest rate cycle. Falling rates compress the margin between what a bank pays depositors and what it charges borrowers, and no amount of customer loyalty changes that.
What to check before you value it
What happens as rates fall
UK bank profits were lifted by higher interest rates. NatWest sustained income through recent cuts, but the direction of Bank Rate is the single biggest external variable in the valuation.
The impairment rate
H1 2026 impairments were £423m, or 19 basis points of loans, with guidance of under 25bps for the year. Impairments are the first place a weakening UK economy shows up.
Capital and what it funds
CET1 was 13.2% at June 2026 after the Evelyn Partners acquisition. The next buyback announcement was brought forward to full-year 2026 results. Capital above the requirement is what pays for distributions.
Basel 3.1
NatWest expects Basel 3.1 to add around £10bn to risk-weighted assets on 1 January 2027. More risk-weighted assets for the same capital means a lower reported capital ratio.
Recent filings
Dated announcements only. Figures below were reported on the dates shown and are not updated as the share price moves.
How Oak Growth scores it
Oak Growth runs a discounted cash flow on NatWest Group and publishes the assumptions behind it — the discount rate, the growth rate and the terminal value — alongside a margin of safety against the live price. It also scores the company on the four pillars: moat, management, economics and value, in that order, because price comes last. The live figures sit in the app rather than on this page, so nothing here goes stale.
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Is NatWest a good share for dividends?
NatWest declared a 12.0p interim dividend for H1 2026, up 26%, and states a policy of paying around 50% of attributable profit as ordinary dividends. It also brought its next buyback consideration forward to the full-year 2026 results. Bank distributions depend on capital generation, which depends on the rate environment.
How is NatWest different from Barclays or HSBC?
NatWest is overwhelmingly a UK bank with no large investment banking arm and little international exposure. Barclays has a global investment bank and a US consumer business; HSBC is weighted to Asia. NatWest's earnings therefore track the UK economy more directly than either.
What is Basel 3.1 and why does it matter to NatWest?
A set of international banking capital rules taking effect in the UK from 1 January 2027. NatWest expects it to increase risk-weighted assets by around £10bn, which mechanically reduces the reported capital ratio unless capital rises to match.
Does the UK government still own NatWest?
The government took a majority stake during the 2008 financial crisis when the bank was called Royal Bank of Scotland, and has been selling down that holding over many years. Check the latest shareholding disclosure for the current position.
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