Glencore (GLEN)
Half miner, half commodities trader. Those two halves behave completely differently — one needs high prices, the other needs volatile ones — and most valuations of Glencore ignore the difference.
The business
Glencore mines copper, cobalt, nickel, zinc and coal, and separately runs one of the world's largest commodity marketing operations, buying and selling physical material it did not necessarily dig up.
In H1 2026 the marketing division produced a near-record $3.3bn EBIT, helped by disrupted energy and freight markets. Copper EBITDA rose from $1.1bn to $3.0bn, with African copper alone going from $0.1bn to over $1bn as production there rose 66%.
The numbers that matter
All figures as reported on the dates shown. Nothing on this page updates with the share price — the live valuation sits in the app.
| Measure | Latest reported | |
|---|---|---|
| Marketing EBIT, H1 2026 | $3.3bn | near record |
| Copper EBITDA | $3.0bn | from $1.1bn |
| African copper EBITDA | over $1bn | from $0.1bn |
| Price movements | +$3.8bn | industrial EBITDA bridge |
| Cost variances | −$1.1bn | plus −$0.4bn currency |
| Industrial capex, H1 | $3.9bn | from $3.4bn |
| Shareholder top-up | $1.5bn | $1bn cash + $0.5bn buyback |
The moat
The mining half has no moat in the usual sense. Copper is copper, and nobody pays a premium for Glencore's. What miners have instead are assets: an orebody with low extraction costs is durable in a way a brand is not, but it is a cost advantage, not pricing power.
The marketing half is closer to a genuine moat. Scale, logistics, storage and decades of relationships are hard to replicate, and the business earns more when markets are disrupted — which is the opposite of most companies. That is why the marketing result was near-record in a year of energy and freight disruption.
What to check before you value it
Which half produced the earnings
Mining earnings follow commodity prices; marketing earnings follow volatility. A strong year for one is not a strong year for the other, and they should not be valued on the same multiple.
Cost inflation against price moves
H1 2026 industrial EBITDA benefited from $3.8bn of positive price movements but lost $1.1bn to cost variances and $0.4bn to currency. Commodity prices get the headlines; costs decide the margin.
Capital expenditure guidance
Glencore raised three-year average capex guidance by 5% to $6.8bn, citing inflation. Mining is capital-hungry, and rising capex reduces the cash available for distributions.
Coal, and who will own it
Glencore remains a large coal producer at a time when many institutions restrict coal exposure. That affects who can buy the shares, which affects the valuation independently of the earnings.
Recent filings
Dated announcements only. Figures below were reported on the dates shown and are not updated as the share price moves.
How Oak Growth scores it
Oak Growth runs a discounted cash flow on Glencore and publishes the assumptions behind it — the discount rate, the growth rate and the terminal value — alongside a margin of safety against the live price. It also scores the company on the four pillars: moat, management, economics and value, in that order, because price comes last. The live figures sit in the app rather than on this page, so nothing here goes stale.
See what Glencore is worth today
Intrinsic value, margin of safety and the four pillars for Glencore and 1,000+ other companies across eight markets.
Try Oak Growth — 7-day free trialCommon questions
What does Glencore actually do?
Two things. It mines copper, cobalt, nickel, zinc and coal, and it runs a large commodity marketing business trading physical material worldwide. The marketing arm earns from price differences and disruption rather than from extraction, which makes it behave differently from the mining side.
Why did Glencore's marketing division do so well in 2026?
Disrupted energy and freight markets created arbitrage and trading opportunities, particularly in oil and gas. Marketing earns from volatility and dislocation, so conditions that hurt most companies can help it. H1 2026 marketing EBIT was near-record at $3.3bn.
Is Glencore listing in Australia?
Glencore stated plans for a secondary listing on the Australian Stock Exchange in October 2026, targeting ASX 200 inclusion within twelve months. The stated rationale is access to Australian superannuation fund demand.
How should a commodity producer be valued?
Not on a single year's earnings, because those swing with prices the company does not control. What matters is the cost position of the assets, the capital needed to sustain production, and the balance sheet's ability to survive a low-price year.
Related
How to value oil stocks → · Gold vs gold mining stocks → · Best ETCs for UK investors →