A record high, then the shopper stopped shopping.

The S&P 500 cleared 7,800 for the first time in its history on Thursday. On Friday it slipped, because US retail sales fell by the most in over a year. Both facts are about the same economy.

Thursday was the high point. Softer-than-expected producer price data landed, traders concluded the Federal Reserve was less likely to raise rates in September, and the S&P 500 rose 0.65% to close at a record 7,798.99 — passing 7,800 intraday for the first time ever. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.81% to 26,803.03, led by Meta, Micron and Netflix. Oil fell more than 2%, which helped.

Friday undid a little of it. The Census Bureau reported that US retail sales fell last month by the most in more than a year, and the University of Michigan's preliminary August sentiment reading showed Americans more downbeat, with inflation still the main worry. The S&P closed at 7,783.96, down 0.19%.

It still finished up on the week — a third consecutive weekly gain.

Why this matters to you. Two things are true at once, and they are pulling in opposite directions. Cooling inflation is good for share prices, because it lowers the interest rate used to value every future pound of profit. A weakening consumer is bad for them, because consumer spending is most of what those companies sell. The market has spent this week pricing the first and is starting to notice the second. That tension — cheaper money against a tired shopper — is the whole argument for the rest of the year.

Company news

IndexReddit joins the S&P 500RDDT

Shares jumped as much as 14% after S&P Dow Jones Indices confirmed Reddit will enter the benchmark index before the opening bell on 18 August. Index inclusion forces every S&P 500 tracker fund to buy the stock, which creates guaranteed demand regardless of what the business is worth — a mechanical move, not a verdict on the company.

IPOAnthropic reportedly eyeing a $2 trillion debut

The Financial Times reported that Anthropic's investors expect a valuation above $2 trillion when it lists, possibly as soon as October. OpenAI is also reported to be preparing a Wall Street debut. Two of the largest flotations in history, in the same sector, in the same window — worth watching for what it does to the AI trade rather than for the headline number.

GuidanceSandisk lifts its long-term outlookSNDK

The flash storage company gained about 7% after a bullish long-term financial outlook at its 2026 Investor Day, and rose again on Friday. Memory pricing has been one of the tightest spots in the supply chain this year — the same shortage that pushed Apple's Mac and iPad prices up.

EarningsGlobant falls 12.6%GLOB

The IT and software development group dropped sharply after a disappointing second quarter. Natural gas producer Range Resources RRC fell 7.3%. A reminder that the record index level is an average, and plenty underneath it is having a poor week.

Charts

Index inclusion lifted Reddit; a weak quarter took Globant down.

Crude peaked above $113 in March. Falling demand has done more to the price than the war has.

Where things closed

S&P 500	7,783.96 −0.19%
Nasdaq	26,687.81 −0.43%
Dow Jones	53,738.60 −0.19%
Russell 2000	3,065.91 +0.43%
Nikkei 225	68,308.59 +1.16%
Kospi	6,813.34 +3.60%
ASX 200	9,188.50 −0.23%
CSI 300	4,663.95 −0.57%
Brent crude	$87.07
VIX	14.46 −1.16%

Geopolitics, and where it lands

The US–Iran war continues, and oil keeps falling anyway

Brent shed more than 2% on Thursday to $87.07 and WTI settled at $81.25, as traders weighed falling demand against the conflict. Where it lands: a war in the Gulf that pushes oil down is unusual, and it tells you demand is weakening faster than supply is being disrupted. Cheaper oil feeds lower inflation, which feeds lower interest rates, which supports share prices — but only because the underlying economy is cooling.

High fuel prices are still showing up in wallets

The University of Michigan's sentiment survey pointed to elevated oil prices weighing on consumers, alongside worries about inflation and business conditions. Where it lands: this is the transmission belt from a shipping lane to a retailer's profit warning. Fuel costs money people would otherwise spend on other things, and retail sales just recorded their worst month in over a year.

Econ Corner

United States

Indicator	Latest	Prev
Inflation (CPI) July, annual	3.4%	3.5%	↓
Core CPI July	2.5%	2.6%	↓
Producer prices July	softer than expected	—	↓
Retail sales latest month	worst fall in 12m+	—	↓
Consumer sentiment August, preliminary	weakened	—	↓
Real GDP Q2, annualised	1.5%	—	slowed
Unemployment	4.3%	—	→
Nonfarm payrolls July	−23,000	gain expected	↓
Fed funds rate	3.50–3.75%	unchanged	→

United Kingdom

Inflation (CPI) most recent published	2.8%
Bank Rate	3.75%
Unemployment Jan–Mar	5.0%
GDP growth 2026 forecast	0.8%

Inflation is falling but still well above target — which is why the debate is about a rate rise, not a cut.

What it adds up to

Softer inflation, weaker jobs, slower growth, and now a consumer pulling back. Markets read the first as good news this week and the last as a warning on the same day.

The unresolved question: does a cooling economy mean cheaper money, or lower profits? For most of this week the market voted for the first.

Next up

Walmart, Target results	next week
NVIDIA results	26 Aug
Reddit joins S&P 500	18 Aug
Fed decision	September

Readings are the latest published at time of writing and are revised regularly.

The week ahead

Retail earnings are the test. Walmart and Target report next week, and after a month in which retail sales fell the most in over a year, their results are the clearest read on whether the consumer is genuinely retrenching or just having a slow July. NVIDIA follows on 26 August, which remains the single largest scheduled event for the AI trade.

See what these companies are actually worth →